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80498-01 - Seminar: Continuous and Discrete-Time Dynamic Systems Modelling for Longitudinal Data With Ctsem (1 CP)
| Semester | fall semester 2026 |
| Course frequency | Irregular |
| Lecturers | Angela Leipold (angela.leipold@unibas.ch, Assessor) |
| Content | The R package ctsem allows for longitudinal modelling of discrete and continuous time dynamic systems, where one or more dynamic processes are linked to one or more potentially noisy variables. ctsem can naturally accommodate varying time intervals between measurements, different measurement approaches, missing data, individual differences via single-subject or hierarchical approaches, and can operate in frequentist or Bayesian frameworks (or somewhere in between). I first provide a broadoverview of dynamic systems approaches, then demonstrate the use of ctsem for a range of models -- starting from simple linear growth, working through univariate dynamic systems, cross-lagged panel models, considering individual differences and interventions, up to non-linear model forms such as time-varying / state-dependent parameters. An emphasis will lie on sensible interpretation of outputs that researchers are typically interested in, and the thoughtful evaluation of model fit via different forms of visualisation, checks and comparisons. On the data structure side of things, I will focus on longitudinal data and complex data structures such as irregular measurement, sporadic interventions, missing data etc. Some time will be devoted to working through examples, discussion of instantiating theoretical ideas and research questions as dynamic system models, and commonalities / differences between the discrete and continuous time representations possible within ctsem. Participants should bring their own laptops with the latest versions of R and RStudio installed. |
| Bibliography | The following literature could provide a head-start for those interested, but is not a requirement: Voelkle, M. C., Oud, J. H., Davidov, E., & Schmidt, P. (2012). An SEM approach to continuous time modeling of panel data: relating authoritarianism and anomia. Psychological Methods, 17(2), 176–192. doi.org/10.1037/a0027543 Driver, C. C. (2024). Inference with cross-lagged effects—Problems in time.Psychological Methods. https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000665 Driver, C. C., & Tomasik, M. J. (2023). Formalizing developmental phenomena as continuous-time systems: Relations between mathematics and language development. Child Development, 94(6), 1454–1471. https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.13990 Driver, C., & Aristodemou, M. (2025). Dynamic Systems Simulation and Modelling With R, ctsem, and lme4: Couples’ Affect Dynamics Over Time. OSF. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/4q9ex_v2 |
| Comments | The workshop is offered by the Society and Choice PhD program. Maximum number of participants: 12. Selection criteria: 1. PhD students from the SC-PSY PhD program 2. Master Science Tracker (StO 15) resp. Science Tracker Society and Choice (StO24) 3. Currently a PhD candidate in psychology 4. First come - first served SC-PSY rules for withdrawal, absence, or partial course attendance: If you cannot attend a workshop that you have signed up for, please cancel your course registration as soon as possible by sending an e-mail to angela.leipold@unibas.ch. This will allow other PhD stu-dents interested in the course to move up from the waiting list. The SC-PSY strongly values fairness. After the university’s official registration period has ended, cancelled course will be assessed with NE. Course registrations can be cancelled until one week before the workshops begins. In the case of late cancellations, participants will not be considered for course registration in the next three months of the lecture peri-ods and will be removed from the registration list of any course they have signed up during these three upcoming months of the lecture periods. If an urgent, unforeseeable, or inevitable event before or during the workshop prevents a participant from attending, a written and substantiated withdrawal request that includes appropriate documentation (e.g. a doctor’s note) must be submitted to angela.leipold@unibas.ch within two days of the work-shop and without being prompted. The program director decides on the approval of the withdrawal request. ECTS-points are awarded only for 100% course attendance. |
| Admission requirements | Doktorat im Bereich Psychologie. Für Masterstudierende im Society&Choice/SWE Science Track: Anmeldung und erfolgreiche Aufnahme in den SWE/S&C Science Track. Siehe: https://psychologie.unibas.ch/de/studium/doktoratsstudium/doktoratsprogramme/sc-psy/science-track/ |
| Language of instruction | English |
| Use of digital media | No specific media used |
| Interval | Weekday | Time | Room |
|---|---|---|---|
| unregelmässig | See individual dates | ||
Dates
| Date | Time | Room |
|---|---|---|
| Monday 05.10.2026 | 10.00-15.00 | Missionsstrasse 64a, Seminarraum 00.003 |
| Tuesday 06.10.2026 | 10.00-15.00 | Missionsstrasse 64a, Seminarraum 00.003 |
| Modules |
Doctorate Psychology: Recommendations (PhD subject: Psychology) Modul: Science Track Society and Choice (Master's Studies: Psychology) Module: Science Track in Social, Economic, and Decision Psychology (Master's Studies: Psychology (Start of studies before 01.08.2024)) |
| Assessment format | continuous assessment |
| Assessment details | Preparation and follow-up of the contents of the workshop as well as active participation. |
| Assessment registration/deregistration | Reg.: course registration, dereg: cancel course registration |
| Repeat examination | no repeat examination |
| Scale | Pass / Fail |
| Repeated registration | as often as necessary |
| Responsible faculty | Faculty of Psychology, studiendekanat-psychologie@unibas.ch |
| Offered by | Faculty of Psychology |