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74740-01 - Seminar: Quantitative Approaches and Methods to Peace (3 CP)
| Semester | spring semester 2025 |
| Course frequency | Irregular |
| Lecturers | Julián Arévalo (julian.arevalo@unibas.ch, Assessor) |
| Content | The field of peace and conflict studies has undergone rapid development over the past decades, resulting in a convergence of different disciplines and approaches. An important element in this process has been the increasing use of quantitative and quasi-quantitative methods to study issues related to peace and conflict studies. These tools and techniques have proven useful in complementing other approaches, such as those of a more theoretical and qualitative nature. This seminar will focus on discussing applications of two such techniques, namely agent-based models (ABMs) and large-n statistical models. ABMs allow the researcher to create simple representations of complex environments where some basic properties of interacting agents have the potential to create complex emergent macrodynamics. The interaction of these agents – and their interaction with their larger environment – can produce patterns that are not predictable from the individual characteristics of the agents. In the case of large-n statistical models, the use of econometric techniques makes it possible to understand correlations and causal relationships between different variables, allowing a better understanding of elements that go beyond the individual decisions of specific agents or that are entirely idiosyncratic to a particular case. In both cases, these techniques provide insights that are valuable for the theory testing and theory development needed in the field of peacemaking. A better understanding of the causes of conflict, the variables that lead to a negotiation process, the interactions of the parties and the tensions between cooperation and conflict, the effects of peace negotiations on the parties, and others could provide both scholars and practitioners with better tools for their endeavors. |
| Learning objectives | • Participants will have a better assessment of the role of quantitative and quasi-quantitative methods in peace and conflict studies, their benefits and limitations. • Participants will be able to describe how ABMs simulate complex environments. • Participants will become familiar with some of the most important datasets in the field, and some questions addressed with them. • Participants will have their own project, that cold serve them for later papers or other research projects in their studies. |
| Bibliography | Arévalo, Julián. 2025. “Adaptive Readiness: An Agent-Based Model of Peace Negotiations.” Swisspeace Document. Arı, Barış. 2023. “Peace Negotiations in Civil Conflicts: A New Dataset.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 67 (1): 150–77. Axelrod, Robert. 1980. “More Effective Choice in the Prisoner’s Dilemma.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 24 (3): 379–403. https://doi.org/10.1177/002200278002400301. ———. 1984. The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books. ———. 1997a. “Advancing the Art of Simulation in the Social Sciences.” In Simulating Social Phenomena, edited by Rosaria Conte, Rainer Hegselmann, and Pietro Terna, 21–40. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03366-1_2. ———. 1997b. The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration. Princeton University Press. Cho, Jacqui, and Dana M. Landau. 2023. “In Search of the Golden Formula: Trends in Peace Mediation Research and Practice.” Civil Wars 25 (2–3): 317–40. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1080/13698249.2023.2249326. Clayton, Govinda, and Han Dorussen. 2021. “The Effectiveness of Mediation and Peacekeeping for Ending Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research 59 (2): 150–65. Clayton, Govinda, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Strand, Siri A. Rustad, Claudia Wiehler, Tora Sagård, Peder Landsverk, et al. 2023. “Introducing the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 67 (7–8): 1430–51. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027221129183. Duursma, Allard. 2023. “Peacekeeping, Mediation, and the Conclusion of Local Ceasefires in Non-State Conflicts.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 67 (7–8): 1405–29. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027221148132. Duursma, Allard, and Feike Fliervoet. 2021. “Fueling Factionalism? The Impact of Peace Processes on Rebel Group Fragmentation in Civil Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 65 (4): 788–812. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002720958062. Findley, Michael, and Peter Rudloff. 2012. “Combatant Fragmentation and the Dynamics of Civil Wars.” British Journal of Political Science 42 (4): 879–901. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123412000099. Fjelde, Hanne, and Kristine Höglund. 2022. “Introducing the Deadly Electoral Conflict Dataset (DECO).” Journal of Conflict Resolution 66 (1): 162–85. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027211021620. Greig, J. Michael. 2001. “Moments of Opportunity: Recognizing Conditions of Ripeness for International Mediation between Enduring Rivals.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (6): 691–718. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002701045006001. Holland, John H. (John Henry). 1996. Hidden Order : How Adaptation Builds Complexity. Cambridge, Mass. : Perseus Books. http://archive.org/details/hiddenorderhowad0000holl. Maoz, Zeev, Paul L. Johnson, Jasper Kaplan, Fiona Ogunkoya, and Aaron P. Shreve. 2019. “The Dyadic Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) Dataset Version 3.0: Logic, Characteristics, and Comparisons to Alternative Datasets.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 63 (3): 811–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002718784158. Pamp, Oliver, Andreas Mehltretter, Paul Binder, and Paul W. Thurner. 2024. “Introducing the Rebels’ Armament Dataset (RAD): Empirical Evidence on Rebel Military Capabilities.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, November, 00220027241297692. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027241297692. Pinfari, Marco. 2011. “Time to Agree: Is Time Pressure Good for Peace Negotiations?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55 (5): 683–709. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002711414370. Rousseau, David, and A. Maurits van der Veen. 2005. “The Emergence of a Shared Identity: An Agent-Based Computer Simulation of Idea Diffusion.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (5): 686–712. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705279336. Schlüter, Maja, Christa Brelsford, Paul J. Ferraro, Kirill Orach, Minghao Qiu, and Martin D. Smith. 2023. “Unraveling Complex Causal Processes That Affect Sustainability Requires More Integration between Empirical and Modeling Approaches.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 120 (October):e2215676120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2215676120. Wyer, Frank. 2024. “Peace Versus Profit: Rebel Fragmentation and Conflict Resurgence in Colombia.” International Organization 78 (4): 701–30. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818324000213. |
| Comments | Attention: All Seminars will be graded in the Department of Political Science. Grading scale 6.0 to 1.0, whereupon 4.0 is a pass. The number of participants will be limited. The places are assigned according to date of enrollment and subject of study. Priority will be given to students of Political Science. |
| Admission requirements | Attention: All Seminars will be graded in the Department of Political Science. Grading scale 6.0 to 1.0, whereupon 4.0 is a pass. The number of participants will be limited. The places are assigned according to date of enrollment and subject of study. Priority will be given to students of Political Science. • A basic understanding of statistical analysis and quantitative methods is required. • Basic programming is also an important asset in this course. • Students should be comfortable working with statistical and data analysis software such as Stata, R, Python, NetLogo, or equivalent tools. |
| Course application | • A basic understanding of statistical analysis and quantitative methods is required. • Basic programming is also an important asset in this course. • Students should be comfortable working with statistical and data analysis software such as Stata, R, Python, NetLogo, or equivalent tools. |
| Language of instruction | English |
| Use of digital media | No specific media used |
| Interval | Weekday | Time | Room |
|---|---|---|---|
| wöchentlich | Tuesday | 16.15-17.45 | Bernoullistrasse 14/16, Seminarraum 02.004 |
Dates
| Modules |
Modul: Erweiterung Gesellschaftswissenschaften M.A. (Master's degree subject: Political Science) Modul: Methoden der Near & Middle Eastern Studies und der Gesellschaftswissenschaften (Master's degree subject: Near & Middle Eastern Studies) Modul: Regionaler Fokus M.A. (Master's degree subject: Political Science) Modul: Vertiefung Politikwissenschaft M.A. (Master's degree subject: Political Science) Module: Methods for Analyzing Changing Societies (Master's degree program: Changing Societies: Migration – Conflicts – Resources) |
| Assessment format | continuous assessment |
| Assessment details | During the semester each student should develop a research project that has three different possibilities: 1. Paper replication: reproduce the results of a quantitative research paper (or a substantial part of it) and make an addition to it based on the theory discussed in class. 2. Address quantitatively a theoretical question addressed in class – or similar – using existing databases. 3. Elaborate a simple Agent-Based model that allows us to study some of the concepts discussed in the course. This corresponds to 60% of the final grade. Additionally, each student will also lead the presentation of one research paper or an academic discussion in one of the topics of the class. This corresponds to 40% of the final grade. |
| Assessment registration/deregistration | Reg.: course registration; dereg.: not required |
| Repeat examination | no repeat examination |
| Scale | 1-6 0,5 |
| Repeated registration | as often as necessary |
| Responsible faculty | Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, studadmin-philhist@unibas.ch |
| Offered by | Fachbereich Politikwissenschaft |